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Outlook for 2021

We are reaching the limit of QE, if you think the bull market will never end because of QE / stimulus, you are mistaken. All is explained in my video.

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Initial jobless claims

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined to 709 thousand in the week ended November 7th, from the previous week's revised level of 757 thousand and below market expectations of 735 thousand. Initial claims were at their lowest level since late March, but remained well above pre-pandemic levels.

source: tradingeconomics.com

ADP employment report

Private businesses in the US hired just 167 thousand workers in July 2020, compared with a revised 4.3 million increase in June and way below market expectations a 1.5 million rise. The labor market continued to recover from April's record slump in employment, but a resurgence in COVID-19 infections forced several states to scale back or pause the reopening of their economies, sending some workers back to unemployment.

 

source: tradingeconomics.com

US initial jobless claims

The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits stood at 1.30 million in the week ended July 11th, little-changed from a revised 1.31 million claims in the prior week and above market expectations of 1.25 million. The latest number lifted the total reported since March 21st to 51.3 million, as record spikes in coronavirus infections forced several states to scale back or pause the reopening of their economies.

 

source: tradingeconomics.com

US retail sales plunge at record pace

Retail sales in the US sank 16.4 percent from a month earlier in April of 2020, worse than forecasts of a 12 percent drop. It is the sharpest decrease in retail sales ever due to the coronavirus pandemic which forced Americans to stay at home and many businesses to close.

 

source: tradingeconomics.com

Worst jobs report in history

The US economy lost 20.5 million jobs in April, less than market expectations of a 22 million cut, and after declining by 870K in March. It is the largest drop ever, bringing the employment to 131 million, its lowest level since February 2011, due to the coronavirus pandemic and consequent restrictive lockdown restrictions imposed such as business closures.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits rises again

The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was 3.169 in the week ended May 2nd, compared to a revised 3.846 million in the prior week and market expectations of 3.0 million.

source: tradingeconomics.com

US jobless claims: over 30 million unemployed

The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was 3.839 million in the week ended April 25th, compared to 4.442 million in the prior week and market expectations of 3.5 million. This brought the total reported since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis to over 30 million, suggesting layoffs have started to spread to industries that were not initially directly impacted by Covid-19.

source: tradingeconomics.com

Big drop in US GDP in the first quarter

The US economy shrank by an annualized 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, ending the longest period of expansion in the country's history, an advance estimate showed. It was the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the last quarter of 2008, much worse than market consensus of a 4.0 percent slump, as the Covid-19 pandemic forced several states to impose lockdown measures in mid-March, throwing millions of people out of work.

source: tradingeconomics.com

US jobless claims above 4 million

The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was 4.427 million last week, bringing the total reported over the past five weeks to over 26 million, equivalent to 16% of the labor force. This means that the 22 million jobs created during the employment boom which started in September 2010 were wiped out in about a month as the coronavirus pandemic swept across the US

 

source: tradingeconomics.com